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Building New Silk Roads to Avert an
Energy Crisis in 2010
by James Finch 16-08-2006 |
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Part One of a Two-Part Series
China embarked upon its remarkable GDP growth under the leadership of Deng
Xioaping, Mao's successor. Deng's message to his comrades: "To get rich is
glorious." China responded by creating a middle class which is now nearly the
same size as the entire population of North America. By meeting the country's
energy demands to feed such rapid growth, China has engendered a worldwide race,
most notably with neighboring India but also with others, to accumulate
sufficient energy sources and raw commodities. Yet on the horizon, China has a
serious energy crisis which could reduce this amazing GDP growth.
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By the late 1990s, northeastern China's vast Daqing oil fields passed their
peak, and no new oil fields of that magnitude were discovered. A net oil
exporter until 1993, China's growing appetite for energy sources and other
commodities has created what some call a 'super cycle' bull market in
commodities. Now the world's second largest oil importer behind the United
States, China's dependence on foreign oil jumped by 10 percent during the first
six months of 2006, compared to the same period a year earlier. Oil imports
during the first half-year grew to 47.3 percent.
In the context of previous years, the growth of oil imports clearly illustrates
China's astonishing escalation of imported oil. According to the Xinhua news
agency, the country's percentage of imported oil stood, in 2001, at slightly
less than 27 percent of total consumption. As of 2004, this percentage had
soared above 41 percent. By that year, China was driven to diversify its
country-mix of energy sources. The Middle East supplies about 45 percent and
Africa exports some 29 percent to China.
Having about 20 percent of the world's population, China only consumes four
percent of what the world's oil fields produce. But, a growing middle class will
simply consume more petroleum products as the decade comes to a close. Presently
importing three million barrels of crude oil every day to fuel the growing
number of automobiles, where will China find the oil to produce gasoline in
2020, when the country could have as many as 140 million cars on its roads?
Because of China's Industrial Revolution, Beijing's streets, once overflowing
with bicycles, are now jammed with nearly three million automobiles. The Chinese
middle class want more energy to accompany their new wealth, but where will it
come from? Since 2001, China has acquired more than 100 oil fields and companies
to sustain its heavy flow of imported oil for this demand. Chinese state-owned
oil companies have spent $15 billion over the past five years to build up their
oil reserves.
The country's state-owned media arm refers to China's exploration and
acquisition expeditions for new oil fields beyond its borders as developing "new
silk roads." These roads have led to Central Asia, South America and Africa in
China's quest to establish more and more energy sources. Is this strategy
working fast enough or not?
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